Optimising together

The roadmap's economic plan is built on two conditions as mentioned in 'Optimising Together': all "external costs are internalised" and the system is "fully circular." The economic milestones are the practical plan to build this new, liberalised economy by giving the market the correct rules to achieve the 'Optimising Together' scenario.

The "Importance of Success": This is the core economic engine of the scenario. By defining the Common Emissions Standard, we give the market a single yardstick for "sustainability." By enforcing Internalize Emission Costs, we make pollution unprofitable. This drives the market to invest in the new fuels as well as the new circular supply chains.

The "Risk of Failure" (What happens if we ignore this?): If we fail to internalize costs, the "market-driven" economy will always choose the cheapest and likely polluting option, and the transition will fail. If we fail to mandate circularity, we solve our emissions crisis only to create a new resource and waste crisis, which violates the "fully circular" and "cradle-to-cradle" logic of the plan towards the 'Optimising Together' scenario.

The technology plan to achieve the 'Optimising Together' scenario is a dual-pronged approach. It requires inventing new physical aircraft and propulsion systems while simultaneously building the digital, AI-driven management system for the entire global fleet.

The "Importance of Success": This dual approach is the path to successfully reaching the scenario vision. The new physical technologies, for example novel propulsion systems, are what make individual flights clean. The new digital technologies, like the AI-driven and interoperable Digital Twin, are what make the entire global network efficient. We must have both to achieve the fully autonomous and fully sustainable end-state.

The "Risk of Failure" (What happens if we ignore this?): An imbalance here leads to a critical systemic failure. If we only fund the physical technologies, we will get clean aircraft operating within a fragmented and inefficient 20th-century air traffic system. If we only fund the digital technologies, we will get a hyper-efficient digital network for managing a fleet that still burns fossil fuels. Either path alone fails to achieve the roadmap's core objectives to achieve the future vision of 'Optimising Together'.

The most profound societal insight from the 'Optimising Together' scenario is that "trust is generated" when "citizens and experts work together as equal partners." The roadmap's societal milestones are not about managing the public; they are the plan to integrate them as co-designers of the new system.

The "Importance of Success": This is the true foundation of the roadmap towards the 'Optimising Together'. The "co-creation" process is the method for achieving Build Social License (for technology) and Ratify Just Transition (for the workforce). This is what creates the empathetic, tolerant, and high-trust society that allows the new technology to be accepted.

The "Risk of Failure" (What happens if we ignore this?): If we build the technology and try to 'push' it on the public, it will be rejected. A 'highly aware' society will not tolerate a transition that isn't fair. This will break the "Social License", trigger massive political resistance, and block the global mandates, causing the plan to fail and the future vision of 'Optimising Together' not to be achieved.

This requires a large-scale, transparent public engagement and education campaign. It must proactively address public concerns and build consensus around the safety of high-impact technologies, such as the risks of on-airport hydrogen storage.

Importance: Failure to gain this "Social License" early on can kill a technology. Public protests or political opposition, regardless of the scientific facts, could block the construction of essential infrastructure (e.g., hydrogen plants), halting the entire roadmap.

This action involves creating the financial architecture for the transition. It requires governments to create large-scale public funds to provide first-loss capital, which "de-risks" the sector enough to attract massive private investment.

Importance: If this initial "seed" funding fails, the entire transition stalls. Private financing will not enter a market with such high upfront technological and regulatory risk, creating massive gaps in financial resources and halting all new R&D.

This involves testing and validating the core AI models for full autonomous flight control and next generation air traffic control in a purely simulated environment. This "in-silico" testing (e.g., using the new digital twin architecture) is used to prove the AI's safety and decision-making logic before it is ever connected to a real aircraft.

Importance: If this foundational validation is skipped, you cannot gain regulatory approval (from Governance) or public trust (from Society) to test these systems in the real world. This would permanently halt the development of both autonomous flight and autonomous ATM.

This is the formal diplomatic action where member states legally adopt the blueprints from the Short Term. This treaty will legally establish all harmonized standards, such as a single global mandate for 'cradle-to-cradle' circularity in aircraft design.

Importance: Without this formal ratification, all standards remain proposals. This blocks the compliance body from being established and prevents full mutual recognition of standards, halting the certification of new aircraft and the global deployment of new fuels.

• How should a LH2 refueling system be designed, both to and on the airport, which is safe, and capable of high flow rates?

• How to design an aviation certified tank & distribution system for liquid hydrogen storage aboard aircraft?

• How might cryogenic components be mechanically assembled in an aircraft environment?

• How might two-phase flow instabilities in hydrogen-powered aircraft systems be mitigated?

• What are the main drivers affecting the depressurization phase performance of tanks aboard hydrogen powered aircraft?

• How can split propulsion and multi-fuel combustion concepts facilitate the transition towards hydrogen powered and sustainable aviation.

• Techno-economic assessment of future networks employing electric aircraft.

• How to effectively recycle batteries?

• What role could batteries play towards sustainable aviation?

• Should airports have to become energy hubs? If so, what is needed for that?

• How should energy production, storage and supply systems be designed to deliver the required energy (quantity and form) at the right location and time?

• What are promising and creative ways to store and transfer energy?

• What does the Cabin of the Future look like, considering a passenger centric view?

• Which passenger trends are shaping the future of air travel?

• How to reduce the environmental impact, particularly the non-CO2 emissions, of a flight?

• How can rotor & fan designs be optimized to increase propulsive efficiency, while overcoming key challenges such as bird strikes, noise reduction, and maintenance requirements?

• How might disruptive aircraft configurations, such as Blended Wing Bodies (BWB) be designed in the future, and what operational-, infrastructure-, and regulatory changes are required to support integration in the aviation system?

• How can existing advanced integrated sensor technologies be effectively and durably embedded within advanced aerospace materials, such as composites or else, to create a self-monitoring structural network that enables real-time, predictive maintenance by 2050?

• How might the development and implementation of a Materials Digital Passport (MDP), specifically a digital substances and formulation passport, effectively enhance safety and promote circularity in the aerospace industry simultaneously?

• How might changes in the early development phases lower the energy consumption of production?

• How might AI aid inline monitoring in additive manufacturing processes?

• Intelligent manufacturing process chains: how to create a green global industrial system?

• How can the use of quantum computing for simulation of bio-species leverage the use of bio-materials

• How do Legal and regulatory barriers to electric, hydrogen, or hybrid aviation, influence the sustainable transition of aviation?

• How do ‘Eco branding’ and regulatory inventions such as the EU Flight Emissions Label in aviation competition act as a market differentiator?

• How does the Green Deal actually influence competitiveness in aviation, given the objective to decarbonize?

• How might “Next Gen Roadmapping” look like; what dynamic decision-making tools towards the decarbonisation of aviation might be developed?

• How can public/shared tech validation facilities accelerate the development of new products service systems for sustainable aviation, both from a technological, societal, and financial perspective?

• What is needed to support and accelerate certification of emerging concepts and innovations contributing to sustainable aviation by 2050?