Milestone
This is the "end-state" where the workforce transition is complete. It signifies that the gaps in human resources and staffing have been closed and that the workers retrained by the Short-Term programs are now the maintenance specialists and remote pilots of the new 2050 system.
If this integration fails, it means the "Just Transition" has failed. It would mean the system had to import a new workforce instead of retraining its existing one, resulting in mass unemployment for the "legacy" workforce and a complete breakdown of the social contract.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fair, equitable, and human-centric transition that ensures public trust and a fully integrated future workforce.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Launch large-scale international reskilling programs for the existing and future workforce.
This involves using the results of the skills-gap analysis to create and fund new curriculum. It means establishing new programs for existing maintenance specialists, in partnership with universities and technical colleges. On top of that, educational institutes must revise their curriculi for the next generation.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A global cap and trade system should lead to a steady reduction of carbon emissions (e.g. 5% reduction per year) with an impact assessment every 5 years. The coverage area should be rolled out as large as possible more maximum effectiveness and level playing field. As pricing increases, less price-sensitive frequent flyers will get affected, such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ and business travelers, and ultimately, travel fanatics.
"The aviation sector faces tremendous sustainability challenges. While technological innovations — sustainable aviation fuels, zero-emission aircraft, and advanced operational efficiencies — are critical, these solutions alone are not sufficient. Achieving the Long-Term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG) of net-zero by 2050 will also depend on a well-prepared, environmentally literate workforce that can design, implement, and lead the industry through its decarbonization." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 57)