The scenarios used currently in this roadmap were developed in the EREA Vision Studies.
Read more.This scenario describes a world of harmonious international cooperation. Economies are market-driven yet focused on environmental responsibility and circularity. Society is highly empathetic and committed to sustainability, practicing "co-creation" where citizens and experts collaborate as equals. As a result, travel demand is high. Aviation is fully low-carbon, using reduced-emission fuels, and is seamlessly integrated into a door-to-door intermodal network.
Read moreThis scenario describes a world unified into cooperative federal blocs with communally overseen economies focused on stability and decarbonisation rather than profit. Consumer choice is limited to generic, low-impact goods, and society lives in regulated mega-cities. Aviation is strongly discouraged and strictly controlled. Due to high costs, social pressure, and the promotion of virtual alternatives, aviation demand is very low.
This scenario describes a world that is deglobalised and fragmented, with cooperation being voluntary. Economies are liberalised and driven by consumer demand for personalised, bespoke products. Society is cautious, with a low desire to travel. Consequently, international aviation is reduced and expensive. The travel market is highly customised, focusing on diverse, door-to-door solutions, including Personal Air Mobility (PAM) for domestic journeys.
This scenario describes a deglobalised, fragmented world rife with high tensions and extreme wealth inequality. Wealthy nations control fossil fuels, while environmental responsibility is a very low priority. Aviation is an expensive luxury for the rich, focused on comfort and powered by fossil fuels. Nations are nationalist, favouring local aircraft and disregarding international standards, which reduces safety.