Milestone
This involves a global agreement on a single, transparent methodology to calculate all emissions, such as a mandatory, unified 'cradle-to-cradle' Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for all aircraft and fuels.
Without this common standard, "greenwashing" becomes rampant. Fuel producers could use different, favorable accounting methods, making it impossible to compare fuels, enforce mandates, or build a trusted global market for SAF or hydrogen.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Empower global institutions with a binding mandate for the net-zero transition.
This action involves convening member states to formally grant key bodies (e.g., ICAO) binding regulatory and enforcement powers, moving them beyond their current advisory-only status to create a single, level playing field.
Read moreDefine common digital and data standards for global aviation operations.
This involves establishing technical working groups to define a "universal language" for the new system. This includes creating a single, universal standard for tracking complex data, such as for 'Sustainable Aviation Fuel' (SAF) lifecycle tracking.
Read morePropose the blueprint for a global governance body built on collaborative frameworks.
This involves legal and financial experts drafting the foundational charter for a new global body. This blueprint will be based on stakeholder co-operation and resource sharing, not a top-down, penalty-based system.
Read moreMandate 'Circular Economy' principles in all new aircraft procurement.
This action establishes the legal requirement that all new aircraft procurement must prioritize recyclability, such as mandating that a high percentage of an airframe to be recyclable by 2035 and including a "digital product passport" for all components.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
In the near future, governments set a minimum price for (non-sustainable) travel options. A more granular approach would be ticket levies that are differentiated based on sustainable performance. The gathered funds can subsidize sustainable travel alternatives. These incentives primarily target travelers who are sensitive to pricing but are not bound to a specific destination such as all-in convenience travelers and young travelers. Travelers who value sustainability are reinforced in their sustainable travel behavior.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A (global) cap and trade system starts with the conceptual model of how the system should work. The conceptual model must ultimately lead to an agreed system for capping and trading of carbon emissions. The conceptualization will require fundamental choices: among others, what industries to include, whether or not to take historical emissions into account, and how to deal with changing demand (e.g. for air travel). An example would be the EU region equivalent Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). Note that ICAO’s global CORSIA is not a cap and trade system but a carbon offsetting scheme. Important (global) stakeholders include sector entities such as ICAO, EASA, FAA and IATA as well as (trans-)national governments such as the European Commission and the US government. This is assuming the global cap and trade system will be an EU led initiative. Looking at the world’s busiest flight routes, involvement of South-East-Asian governments (e.g. China, Korea and Japan) and Middle-Eastern governments (e.g. Saudi Arabia and the UAE) will be key.
"The ICAO sustainability criteria, sustainability certification and assessment of life cycle emissions used under CORSIA are confirmed as the accepted basis for the eligibility of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies for international aviation, emphasizing the importance of facilitating their global scale up in all regions." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. A6)
"A harmonized methodology for measuring the environmental impacts of plastics and their alternatives aims to increase comparability around LCAs that are applicable for the air transport sector and provide decision-making tools to objectively assess replacement to plastic items." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 433)
"The EU has developed initiatives to shorten permitting (such as the Article 122 emergency proposals), but there are still significant hurdles to implementation, in particular lack of administrative capacity and digitalisation. 69% of municipalities report a lack of skills related to environmental and climate assessments." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 45)