Milestone
This action involves convening member states to formally grant key bodies (e.g., ICAO) binding regulatory and enforcement powers, moving them beyond their current advisory-only status to create a single, level playing field.
If this is not achieved, the entire transition remains voluntary. This creates a fragmented system where airlines can "carbon leak" to find the weakest regulations, making large-scale private investment in new infrastructure commercially unviable.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A unified global regulatory, legal, and data framework for the net-zero transition and seamless air travel.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Define common digital and data standards for global aviation operations.
This involves establishing technical working groups to define a "universal language" for the new system. This includes creating a single, universal standard for tracking complex data, such as for 'Sustainable Aviation Fuel' (SAF) lifecycle tracking.
Read moreEstablish 'regulatory sandboxes' to accelerate certification of new technologies.
This requires key regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) to create temporary, monitored pathways for innovation. This allows innovators to co-develop safety cases in a live environment, such as in a designated trans-Atlantic corridor for testing autonomous cargo flights.
Read morePropose the blueprint for a global governance body built on collaborative frameworks.
This involves legal and financial experts drafting the foundational charter for a new global body. This blueprint will be based on stakeholder co-operation and resource sharing, not a top-down, penalty-based system.
Read moreDefine a common global standard for calculating 'life cycle emissions values'.
This involves a global agreement on a single, transparent methodology to calculate all emissions, such as a mandatory, unified 'cradle-to-cradle' Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) for all aircraft and fuels.
Read moreSecure initial investments to build competitive, liberalized net-zero markets.
This action involves creating the financial architecture for the transition. It requires governments to create large-scale public funds to provide first-loss capital, which "de-risks" the sector enough to attract massive private investment.
Read moreMandate 'Circular Economy' principles in all new aircraft procurement.
This action establishes the legal requirement that all new aircraft procurement must prioritize recyclability, such as mandating that a high percentage of an airframe to be recyclable by 2035 and including a "digital product passport" for all components.
Read moreEstablish global 'living labs' to co-create new technologies with citizens.
This requires a large-scale, transparent public engagement and education campaign. It must proactively address public concerns and build consensus around the safety of high-impact technologies, such as the risks of on-airport hydrogen storage.
Read moreRatify the guiding principles for a 'Just Transition'.
This is a formal process of negotiation to create a "social contract" for the transition. It involves bringing all stakeholders, especially labor unions, to the table to agree on core principles, such as a "job guarantee" for all displaced fossil-fuel-era workers.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
In the near future, governments set a minimum price for (non-sustainable) travel options. A more granular approach would be ticket levies that are differentiated based on sustainable performance. The gathered funds can subsidize sustainable travel alternatives. These incentives primarily target travelers who are sensitive to pricing but are not bound to a specific destination such as all-in convenience travelers and young travelers. Travelers who value sustainability are reinforced in their sustainable travel behavior.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A (global) cap and trade system starts with the conceptual model of how the system should work. The conceptual model must ultimately lead to an agreed system for capping and trading of carbon emissions. The conceptualization will require fundamental choices: among others, what industries to include, whether or not to take historical emissions into account, and how to deal with changing demand (e.g. for air travel). An example would be the EU region equivalent Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). Note that ICAO’s global CORSIA is not a cap and trade system but a carbon offsetting scheme. Important (global) stakeholders include sector entities such as ICAO, EASA, FAA and IATA as well as (trans-)national governments such as the European Commission and the US government. This is assuming the global cap and trade system will be an EU led initiative. Looking at the world’s busiest flight routes, involvement of South-East-Asian governments (e.g. China, Korea and Japan) and Middle-Eastern governments (e.g. Saudi Arabia and the UAE) will be key.
"In the near term, the gap is less about technology than about market architecture: fragmented policy, uneven certification rules, and immature attribute markets keep capital sidelined and scale elusive." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 191)
"...This requires a regulatory framework that ensures market stability, provides long-term certainty... and establishes a global level playing field." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 7)
"Fostering multistakeholder partnerships that bridge aviation with other modes of transport is key to creating a cohesive and sustainable global transport ecosystem. To achieve this, strategies must focus on collaboration, integration, and shared goals that address environmental, economic, and social challenges." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 471)