Milestone
This action involves creating the financial architecture for the transition. It requires governments to create large-scale public funds to provide first-loss capital, which "de-risks" the sector enough to attract massive private investment.
If this initial "seed" funding fails, the entire transition stalls. Private financing will not enter a market with such high upfront technological and regulatory risk, creating massive gaps in financial resources and halting all new R&D.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Empower global institutions with a binding mandate for the net-zero transition.
This action involves convening member states to formally grant key bodies (e.g., ICAO) binding regulatory and enforcement powers, moving them beyond their current advisory-only status to create a single, level playing field.
Read moreValidate the business models for net-zero energy scalability.
This involves completing comprehensive techno-economic research to confirm resource availability. This includes definitive studies confirming, for example, the global availability of renewable electricity and freshwater needed to produce the required millions of tonnes of hydrogen.
Read moreAchieve TRL 6 ground-test validation for all key net-zero propulsion technologies
This involves moving all promising propulsion concepts from the lab to a full-system demonstration. This means building and successfully ground-testing complete hydrogen powertrain systems (both combustion and hydrogen fuel cells) and hybrid powertrain systems (e.g., SAF & electric battery) to prove their fundamental viability before first flight.
Read moreLaunch pilot programs for advanced operational and aerodynamic concepts.
This involves launching the first small-scale, real-world tests for advanced operational concepts using existing aircraft. This includes demonstrating the fuel-saving potential of concepts like formation flight and continuous descent approach in controlled, live airspace to prove their value.
Read moreEstablish global 'living labs' to co-create new technologies with citizens.
This requires a large-scale, transparent public engagement and education campaign. It must proactively address public concerns and build consensus around the safety of high-impact technologies, such as the risks of on-airport hydrogen storage.
Read moreLaunch large-scale international reskilling programs for the existing and future workforce.
This involves using the results of the skills-gap analysis to create and fund new curriculum. It means establishing new programs for existing maintenance specialists, in partnership with universities and technical colleges. On top of that, educational institutes must revise their curriculi for the next generation.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
Part of the funds derived from taxations or market based measures can be used to co-invest with the travel industry in sustainable technological innovation. This helps airlines to offer sustainable travel options with a good passenger experience to a wider demographic including grey nomads, travel fanatics and ‘bleisure’ travellers. Airlines can then shift their business models from volume driven to (sustainable) value driven travel.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A (global) cap and trade system starts with the conceptual model of how the system should work. The conceptual model must ultimately lead to an agreed system for capping and trading of carbon emissions. The conceptualization will require fundamental choices: among others, what industries to include, whether or not to take historical emissions into account, and how to deal with changing demand (e.g. for air travel). An example would be the EU region equivalent Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). Note that ICAO’s global CORSIA is not a cap and trade system but a carbon offsetting scheme. Important (global) stakeholders include sector entities such as ICAO, EASA, FAA and IATA as well as (trans-)national governments such as the European Commission and the US government. This is assuming the global cap and trade system will be an EU led initiative. Looking at the world’s busiest flight routes, involvement of South-East-Asian governments (e.g. China, Korea and Japan) and Middle-Eastern governments (e.g. Saudi Arabia and the UAE) will be key.
"Identify and mitigate any possible funding gaps in time, to prevent delays in research activities, which would directly hamper the decarbonisation of European aviation. This implication holds for both government funding, as well as for private funding. Given the focus of current (European) funding programmes, lower TRL research and development of technologies for twin-aisle aircraft is identified as an area where such a funding gap exists." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 52)
"Collaborative initiatives such as CORSIA, operational efficiency improvements, measures tackling non-CO2 emissions, as well as innovation and infrastructure investment are all crucial for the industry’s net-zero pathway." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 73)
"The results suggest that the investment push can be carried out without the economy running into supply constraints, and that mobilising private financing will be critical in this respect." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 19)