Milestone
This involves completing comprehensive techno-economic research to confirm resource availability. This includes definitive studies confirming, for example, the global availability of renewable electricity and freshwater needed to produce the required millions of tonnes of hydrogen.
Failure to validate these pathways means the system is "flying blind." This could lead to investing trillions in a dead-end technology (e.g., a fuel that cannot be scaled globally), resulting in a catastrophic waste of time and capital.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Secure initial investments to build competitive, liberalized net-zero markets.
This action involves creating the financial architecture for the transition. It requires governments to create large-scale public funds to provide first-loss capital, which "de-risks" the sector enough to attract massive private investment.
Read moreDeploy at-scale net-zero fueling infrastructure at all major international hubs.
This is the large-scale "build-out" phase, moving from pilots to permanent infrastructure. It involves constructing the necessary hydrogen supply service and electricity supply service (e.g., installing cryogenic hydrogen-ready pipelines and megawatt-scale charging) at all key airports.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
In the near future, governments set a minimum price for (non-sustainable) travel options. A more granular approach would be ticket levies that are differentiated based on sustainable performance. The gathered funds can subsidize sustainable travel alternatives. These incentives primarily target travelers who are sensitive to pricing but are not bound to a specific destination such as all-in convenience travelers and young travelers. Travelers who value sustainability are reinforced in their sustainable travel behavior.
"The EU has developed initiatives to shorten permitting (such as the Article 122 emergency proposals), but there are still significant hurdles to implementation, in particular lack of administrative capacity and digitalisation. 69% of municipalities report a lack of skills related to environmental and climate assessments." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 45)
"Fragmentation of the Single Market hinders innovative companies that reach the growth stage from scaling up in the EU, which in turn reduces demand for financing." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 29)