Milestone
This is the large-scale "build-out" phase, moving from pilots to permanent infrastructure. It involves constructing the necessary hydrogen supply service and electricity supply service (e.g., installing cryogenic hydrogen-ready pipelines and megawatt-scale charging) at all key airports.
If the infrastructure is not ready at major hubs, the new decarbonised aircraft (certified in the Technology track) have nowhere to refuel. This would immediately kill the business case for these new aircraft, halting all airline orders.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Validate the business models for net-zero energy scalability.
This involves completing comprehensive techno-economic research to confirm resource availability. This includes definitive studies confirming, for example, the global availability of renewable electricity and freshwater needed to produce the required millions of tonnes of hydrogen.
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreSecure a permanent, global-scale supply of all net-zero emission energy.
This action ensures the entire 2050 aviation system has a permanent, reliable, and sustainable supply of energy, such as a fully operational global network of hydrogen production hubs and a mature, liquid market for certified SAFs.
Read moreAchieve TRL 9 flight-proven status for key net-zero propulsion systems.
This is the "first flight" and "flight-proven" stage, moving from ground-test (Short Term) to repeated, successful mission operations. It involves integrating the proven propulsion systems (e.g., hydrogen-combustion, electric-hybrid) onto test aircraft and flying them in a live environment to achieve flight-proven status (TRL 9).
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
Part of the funds derived from taxations or market based measures can be used to co-invest with the travel industry in sustainable technological innovation. This helps airlines to offer sustainable travel options with a good passenger experience to a wider demographic including grey nomads, travel fanatics and ‘bleisure’ travellers. Airlines can then shift their business models from volume driven to (sustainable) value driven travel.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
In order for multi-modal journeys to work operators from different modalities should come together in a single forum to create an ecosystem including a secure platform for data sharing. (Inter-regional) governments can help set standards for this data exchange. Together the ecosystem can work towards a regional proof of concept or ‘minimum valuable product’ to demonstrate the value and potential of multi-modal travel. The minimal version of multi-modal travel is aimed at the younger generation who are tech-savvy, more open to test new forms of travel and are less concerned with increased travel time or uncertainty. To get them on board cost should be low and the destination experience offered should be unique.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
As a multi-modal ecosystem matures, reliability and flexibility needs to be increased. After the basic infrastructure is in place and proven, an (AI-)orchestrator should be added so more complex itineraries can be planned and managed during disruptions. The improved reliability and flexibility opens up multi-modal journeys for a wider selection of travel persona’s: e.g. grey nomads, business travelers, and visiting friends and relatives. The most demanding personas are likely to be families and travelers with disabilities over concerns in the reliability and predictability of the system.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
Implementing this measure starts with the definition of this ‘alternative offer’: what would it look like? What value(s) would it provide to the passenger? There should be clear advantages to using the least polluting travel mode and travelling less far or less frequent in addition to increased sustainability. Examples are lower prices or a unique travel experience for more sustainable travel modes, holiday alternative closer to home or incentives to staying longer at the same location (travelling less overall). Governments can stimulate the necessary technological developments of aircraft manufacturers and operational changes at airlines with regulation and taxation that favor sustainable travel. This would allow airlines and travel agents effectively market these travel options. The offer should be targeted first at travel fanatics who travel the most without a specific need for a particular destination and young travelers with a willing to try new things, and benefit from new, sustainable habits. Influencers aimed at these target demographics can demonstrate the experience and travel value of the new sustainable propositions. When indeed sustainable and attractive, travelers who are already interested in sustainable travel can tag along without the need for additional promotion.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
After approving a EU wide cap and trade system, the system should be implemented and enforced by the appropriate (trans-)national governments. This can start with specific origin destination pairs or geographical area. The larger the coverage area of the system, the larger emission reduction potential will be. Also the fairness of the system increases levelling the playing field for international competitors (such as airlines). After implementation, (air) travel operators will have to reduce their emissions and alter their pricing accordingly. Travel personas who are price sensitive, not tied to a specific location, and/or travel the most distance are affected the most: these include the younger generation and all-convenience travelers first.
"Collaborative initiatives such as CORSIA, operational efficiency improvements, measures tackling non-CO2 emissions, as well as innovation and infrastructure investment are all crucial for the industry’s net-zero pathway." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 73)
(2035-2040) "Hydrogen storage scaled-up for aviation use, and liquefaction facilities at select airports" (IATA New Aviation Ecosystem Roadmap (2023), p. 5)