Milestone
This is the "first flight" and "flight-proven" stage, moving from ground-test (Short Term) to repeated, successful mission operations. It involves integrating the proven propulsion systems (e.g., hydrogen-combustion, electric-hybrid) onto test aircraft and flying them in a live environment to achieve flight-proven status (TRL 9).
This is a critical "valley of death" for new technology. Failure to achieve flight-proven status means the technology is not mature enough for commercial certification. This would halt the entire Medium-Term Type Certification milestone, leaving no viable technologies to build.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fully developed, certified, and deployed ecosystem of net-zero technologies, from new propulsion to full autonomy.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Deploy at-scale net-zero fueling infrastructure at all major international hubs.
This is the large-scale "build-out" phase, moving from pilots to permanent infrastructure. It involves constructing the necessary hydrogen supply service and electricity supply service (e.g., installing cryogenic hydrogen-ready pipelines and megawatt-scale charging) at all key airports.
Read moreAchieve TRL 6 ground-test validation for all key net-zero propulsion technologies
This involves moving all promising propulsion concepts from the lab to a full-system demonstration. This means building and successfully ground-testing complete hydrogen powertrain systems (both combustion and hydrogen fuel cells) and hybrid powertrain systems (e.g., SAF & electric battery) to prove their fundamental viability before first flight.
Read moreComplete Type Certification for all net-zero aircraft classes, including high-speed.
This is the massive bureaucratic and engineering effort to achieve full Type Certification for all classes of new, net-zero aircraft. This involves proving to regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) that the new novel fuselage designs, novel wings (e.g., truss-braced wing), and hydrogen powertrain systems are safe for commercial operations.
Read morePromoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
Implementing this measure starts with the definition of this ‘alternative offer’: what would it look like? What value(s) would it provide to the passenger? There should be clear advantages to using the least polluting travel mode and travelling less far or less frequent in addition to increased sustainability. Examples are lower prices or a unique travel experience for more sustainable travel modes, holiday alternative closer to home or incentives to staying longer at the same location (travelling less overall). Governments can stimulate the necessary technological developments of aircraft manufacturers and operational changes at airlines with regulation and taxation that favor sustainable travel. This would allow airlines and travel agents effectively market these travel options. The offer should be targeted first at travel fanatics who travel the most without a specific need for a particular destination and young travelers with a willing to try new things, and benefit from new, sustainable habits. Influencers aimed at these target demographics can demonstrate the experience and travel value of the new sustainable propositions. When indeed sustainable and attractive, travelers who are already interested in sustainable travel can tag along without the need for additional promotion.