Milestone
This is the massive bureaucratic and engineering effort to achieve full Type Certification for all classes of new, net-zero aircraft. This involves proving to regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) that the new novel fuselage designs, novel wings (e.g., truss-braced wing), and hydrogen powertrain systems are safe for commercial operations.
This is the single biggest bottleneck in the technology track. Failure to complete certification means that even if the technology and infrastructure are ready, no airline can legally buy or fly the new aircraft, halting all fleet renewal.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fully developed, certified, and deployed ecosystem of net-zero technologies, from new propulsion to full autonomy.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Ratify a binding International Treaty for harmonized net-zero emission standards.
This is the formal diplomatic action where member states legally adopt the blueprints from the Short Term. This treaty will legally establish all harmonized standards, such as a single global mandate for 'cradle-to-cradle' circularity in aircraft design.
Read moreAchieve full mutual recognition of certification standards among all regulatory blocs.
This is the critical bureaucratic step where all major regulatory blocs (e.g., EASA, FAA, CAAC) formally agree to accept each other's certifications for new decarbonised aircraft, such as an EASA certification for a hydrogen-electric engine being immediately and automatically accepted by the FAA.
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreAchieve TRL 9 flight-proven status for key net-zero propulsion systems.
This is the "first flight" and "flight-proven" stage, moving from ground-test (Short Term) to repeated, successful mission operations. It involves integrating the proven propulsion systems (e.g., hydrogen-combustion, electric-hybrid) onto test aircraft and flying them in a live environment to achieve flight-proven status (TRL 9).
Read more"With respect to (airworthiness) regulation, it notes that no certification standard currently exists for hydrogen-powered aircraft (AZEA, 2023a). For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, a Special Condition published in 2021 provides certification requirements for such systems in case an aircraft application has already been identified (EASA, 2021)." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 52)