Milestone
This is the critical bureaucratic step where all major regulatory blocs (e.g., EASA, FAA, CAAC) formally agree to accept each other's certifications for new decarbonised aircraft, such as an EASA certification for a hydrogen-electric engine being immediately and automatically accepted by the FAA.
Without this mutual recognition, an aircraft manufacturer would have to undergo separate, multi-year certification processes in every single country. This would make mass production impossible, kill the business case for new aircraft, and halt fleet renewal.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A unified global regulatory, legal, and data framework for the net-zero transition and seamless air travel.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Ratify a binding International Treaty for harmonized net-zero emission standards.
This is the formal diplomatic action where member states legally adopt the blueprints from the Short Term. This treaty will legally establish all harmonized standards, such as a single global mandate for 'cradle-to-cradle' circularity in aircraft design.
Read moreComplete Type Certification for all net-zero aircraft classes, including high-speed.
This is the massive bureaucratic and engineering effort to achieve full Type Certification for all classes of new, net-zero aircraft. This involves proving to regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) that the new novel fuselage designs, novel wings (e.g., truss-braced wing), and hydrogen powertrain systems are safe for commercial operations.
Read more"Besides the development of new technologies, updated and/or entirely new certification standards are required – for which, in Europe, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has responsibility. Alignment, harmonisation and collaboration are key in these developments, due to the limited resources available and wide array of technologies being proposed." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 52)
"ICAO remains steadfast in fostering multilateral collaboration, ensuring that No Country is Left Behind in this transition." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 9)
"With respect to (airworthiness) regulation, it notes that no certification standard currently exists for hydrogen-powered aircraft (AZEA, 2023a). For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, a Special Condition published in 2021 provides certification requirements for such systems in case an aircraft application has already been identified (EASA, 2021)." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 52)