Milestone
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
This is the ultimate goal. Failure to complete this step means the system is still emitting CO2 from a "legacy fleet." This would represent a partial success at best and a total failure to meet the 2050 "net-zero" mandate.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Operationalize the global governance body to manage net-zero mandates collaboratively.
This involves the now established body using its full authority. It will focus on using its platform to manage the transition through data sharing, resource coordination, and mutual support, rather than by only issuing fines.
Read moreDeploy at-scale net-zero fueling infrastructure at all major international hubs.
This is the large-scale "build-out" phase, moving from pilots to permanent infrastructure. It involves constructing the necessary hydrogen supply service and electricity supply service (e.g., installing cryogenic hydrogen-ready pipelines and megawatt-scale charging) at all key airports.
Read moreOperationalize financial mechanisms to create a market-pull for fleet renewal.
This means turning the "polluter pays" principle into a functional market. It involves implementing mechanisms like a global "book-and-claim" system for SAFs, allowing a corporation in New York to pay for SAF use in Singapore, thereby funding the transition.
Read moreImplement 'polluter pays' policies that internalize all external emission costs.
This is the full implementation of the "polluter pays" principle. It means all remaining fossil-fuel flights are subject to strict financial penalties that reflect their full damage, such as a 'non-CO2 multiplier' that triples the carbon price for high-altitude contrail effects.
Read moreSecure a permanent, global-scale supply of all net-zero emission energy.
This action ensures the entire 2050 aviation system has a permanent, reliable, and sustainable supply of energy, such as a fully operational global network of hydrogen production hubs and a mature, liquid market for certified SAFs.
Read moreCertify recycled materials for primary structural use.
This is the "end-state" of the circular economy. It means creating completely closed material loops where 100% of retired aircraft, batteries, and components are recovered, such as creating a 'closed-loop' system for recycling rare-earth metals from electric motors.
Read moreComplete Type Certification for all net-zero aircraft classes, including high-speed.
This is the massive bureaucratic and engineering effort to achieve full Type Certification for all classes of new, net-zero aircraft. This involves proving to regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) that the new novel fuselage designs, novel wings (e.g., truss-braced wing), and hydrogen powertrain systems are safe for commercial operations.
Read moreLaunch 'Gen 2.0' R&D for continuous optimization of in-service fleets.
This involves using the vast amount of data from the new in-service fleet to drive continuous improvement. This means launching 'Generation 2.0' R&D to create even more efficient gas turbine technology (for SAFs), lighter advanced composites, and more powerful AI based optimizations.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A global cap and trade system should lead to a steady reduction of carbon emissions (e.g. 5% reduction per year) with an impact assessment every 5 years. The coverage area should be rolled out as large as possible more maximum effectiveness and level playing field. As pricing increases, less price-sensitive frequent flyers will get affected, such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ and business travelers, and ultimately, travel fanatics.
"Manufacturers must ensure a steady and sufficient output of airframes, such that fleet renewal plans become fleet renewal realities. This also requires healthy supply chains. Aircraft operators must continue fleet renewal efforts, at least maintaining an ideally even increasing the rate at which new aircraft enter their fleets." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 51)