Milestone
This is the "end-state" of the circular economy. It means creating completely closed material loops where 100% of retired aircraft, batteries, and components are recovered, such as creating a 'closed-loop' system for recycling rare-earth metals from electric motors.
Without full circularity, the "clean" 2050 system would create a new environmental crisis: mountains of non-recyclable composite wings and toxic batteries. This would create massive gaps in material resources and fail the test of "strong sustainability."
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Launch full-scale, circular industrialization for net-zero aircraft.
This action involves building the new supply chains required to support the circular economy. This includes constructing the first large-scale, automated facilities for disassembling retired airframes and recycling valuable 'end-of-life' composite materials.
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreConfirm the economic viability of the self-sustaining, market-driven aviation system.
This is the final "check" to ensure the new system can operate without the massive start-up subsidies. It confirms the system is now economically self-sustaining, such as demonstrating that ticket prices have stabilized and are no longer dependent on government support.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A global cap and trade system should lead to a steady reduction of carbon emissions (e.g. 5% reduction per year) with an impact assessment every 5 years. The coverage area should be rolled out as large as possible more maximum effectiveness and level playing field. As pricing increases, less price-sensitive frequent flyers will get affected, such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ and business travelers, and ultimately, travel fanatics.
"The need for accelerated approval of new production pathways, feedstocks, and sustainability certification under a globally harmonized ICAO-led approach was also emphasized." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. A3)