Milestone
This is the final "check" to ensure the new system can operate without the massive start-up subsidies. It confirms the system is now economically self-sustaining, such as demonstrating that ticket prices have stabilized and are no longer dependent on government support.
If the system is not economically viable, it will collapse the moment government support is removed. This would prove the transition was an artificial, temporary state, making it vulnerable to political changes and ensuring its long-term failure.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Secure a permanent, global-scale supply of all net-zero emission energy.
This action ensures the entire 2050 aviation system has a permanent, reliable, and sustainable supply of energy, such as a fully operational global network of hydrogen production hubs and a mature, liquid market for certified SAFs.
Read moreCertify recycled materials for primary structural use.
This is the "end-state" of the circular economy. It means creating completely closed material loops where 100% of retired aircraft, batteries, and components are recovered, such as creating a 'closed-loop' system for recycling rare-earth metals from electric motors.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
In the far future multi-modal journeys will have become the default travel option for all travel persona’s. The travel sector and international governments can then work towards global coverage aided by developments in AI and autonomous transport.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A global cap and trade system should lead to a steady reduction of carbon emissions (e.g. 5% reduction per year) with an impact assessment every 5 years. The coverage area should be rolled out as large as possible more maximum effectiveness and level playing field. As pricing increases, less price-sensitive frequent flyers will get affected, such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ and business travelers, and ultimately, travel fanatics.