Milestone
This is the full implementation of the "polluter pays" principle. It means all remaining fossil-fuel flights are subject to strict financial penalties that reflect their full damage, such as a 'non-CO2 multiplier' that triples the carbon price for high-altitude contrail effects.
If this principle isn't legally binding, the economic model inverts. The "first movers" using expensive, clean technology would be at a disadvantage to "laggards" using cheap, polluting fuel. This punishes innovators and rewards pollution.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Formally establish the global governance body as an operational reality.
This action transitions the governance body from a "blueprint" to a fully-resourced, operational reality. It involves all member states providing funding to officially launch the new entity (e.g., the 'World Aviation Authority').
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
"Traditional energy providers are placing obstacles in the ramp-up and scalability of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production – or simply pulling back on their climate commitments." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 72)