Milestone
This involves the now established body using its full authority. It will focus on using its platform to manage the transition through data sharing, resource coordination, and mutual support, rather than by only issuing fines.
If the body is not fully operationalized, it remains a "toothless tiger." This would cause the entire framework to collapse over time, as operators would realize there are no real consequences for non-compliance, leading to a slow return to the old, polluting system.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A unified global regulatory, legal, and data framework for the net-zero transition and seamless air travel.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Formally establish the global governance body as an operational reality.
This action transitions the governance body from a "blueprint" to a fully-resourced, operational reality. It involves all member states providing funding to officially launch the new entity (e.g., the 'World Aviation Authority').
Read moreImplement a continuous adaptation framework for real-time standards updates.
This involves implementing a pre-agreed-upon legal and technical process for rapid standards updates. This allows new, more efficient operational procedures, for example, to be approved globally in weeks, not years, based on shared test data.
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
"Enhanced global cooperation within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) is needed to translate the long-term aspirational goal into a more ambitious CORSIA implementation. For flights leaving the EEA, either carbon credit effectiveness can be improved in the short-term or the EU commission can set carbon offset standards in line with the net zero target." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 33)
"While many mitigation measures can be thought of, it needs to be assessed whether they are feasible, effective and efficient considering that safety stays the top-priority and certification standards need to be adhered to." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 133)
"The EU has developed initiatives to shorten permitting (such as the Article 122 emergency proposals), but there are still significant hurdles to implementation, in particular lack of administrative capacity and digitalisation. 69% of municipalities report a lack of skills related to environmental and climate assessments." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 45)