Milestone
This means turning the "polluter pays" principle into a functional market. It involves implementing mechanisms like a global "book-and-claim" system for SAFs, allowing a corporation in New York to pay for SAF use in Singapore, thereby funding the transition.
Without these mechanisms, fossil-fueled aircraft remain the cheaper option. Airlines would have no financial reason to undergo the massive expense and risk of large-scale fleet renewal, and the transition would stop dead.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A self-sustaining, circular aviation market supported by established economic and industrial models.
Timeline
Medium term
PESTEL
Formally establish the global governance body as an operational reality.
This action transitions the governance body from a "blueprint" to a fully-resourced, operational reality. It involves all member states providing funding to officially launch the new entity (e.g., the 'World Aviation Authority').
Read moreComplete the large-scale fleet renewal to 100% decarbonised aircraft.
This is the final phase where 100% of fossil-fuel-dependent aircraft are replaced with decarbonised aircraft. This includes the replacement of all short-haul and long-haul aircraft, as well as all business and cargo jets, with their decarbonised equivalents.
Read moreA market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A (global) cap and trade system starts with the conceptual model of how the system should work. The conceptual model must ultimately lead to an agreed system for capping and trading of carbon emissions. The conceptualization will require fundamental choices: among others, what industries to include, whether or not to take historical emissions into account, and how to deal with changing demand (e.g. for air travel). An example would be the EU region equivalent Emission Trading System (EU-ETS). Note that ICAO’s global CORSIA is not a cap and trade system but a carbon offsetting scheme. Important (global) stakeholders include sector entities such as ICAO, EASA, FAA and IATA as well as (trans-)national governments such as the European Commission and the US government. This is assuming the global cap and trade system will be an EU led initiative. Looking at the world’s busiest flight routes, involvement of South-East-Asian governments (e.g. China, Korea and Japan) and Middle-Eastern governments (e.g. Saudi Arabia and the UAE) will be key.
"... a combination of aircraft types with different energy storage and propulsion systems is forecast to be introduced. This is also supported by various concepts being developed by new manufacturers. These aircraft, or ones compatible with 100% SAF, are estimated to completely mitigate (net) CO2 emissions and are modelled to enter into service from 2030 onwards." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 44)
"In the short term, fleet renewal with the latest generation of more efficient conventionally fuelled aircraft is also an important contributor, delivering 8% direct emissions reductions by 2030." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 9)