Milestone
This requires a large-scale, transparent public engagement and education campaign. It must proactively address public concerns and build consensus around the safety of high-impact technologies, such as the risks of on-airport hydrogen storage.
Failure to gain this "Social License" early on can kill a technology. Public protests or political opposition, regardless of the scientific facts, could block the construction of essential infrastructure (e.g., hydrogen plants), halting the entire roadmap.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fair, equitable, and human-centric transition that ensures public trust and a fully integrated future workforce.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Empower global institutions with a binding mandate for the net-zero transition.
This action involves convening member states to formally grant key bodies (e.g., ICAO) binding regulatory and enforcement powers, moving them beyond their current advisory-only status to create a single, level playing field.
Read moreEstablish 'regulatory sandboxes' to accelerate certification of new technologies.
This requires key regulators (e.g., EASA, FAA) to create temporary, monitored pathways for innovation. This allows innovators to co-develop safety cases in a live environment, such as in a designated trans-Atlantic corridor for testing autonomous cargo flights.
Read moreSecure initial investments to build competitive, liberalized net-zero markets.
This action involves creating the financial architecture for the transition. It requires governments to create large-scale public funds to provide first-loss capital, which "de-risks" the sector enough to attract massive private investment.
Read moreAchieve TRL 6 ground-test validation for all key net-zero propulsion technologies
This involves moving all promising propulsion concepts from the lab to a full-system demonstration. This means building and successfully ground-testing complete hydrogen powertrain systems (both combustion and hydrogen fuel cells) and hybrid powertrain systems (e.g., SAF & electric battery) to prove their fundamental viability before first flight.
Read moreFinancial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
In the near future, governments set a minimum price for (non-sustainable) travel options. A more granular approach would be ticket levies that are differentiated based on sustainable performance. The gathered funds can subsidize sustainable travel alternatives. These incentives primarily target travelers who are sensitive to pricing but are not bound to a specific destination such as all-in convenience travelers and young travelers. Travelers who value sustainability are reinforced in their sustainable travel behavior.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
As a multi-modal ecosystem matures, reliability and flexibility needs to be increased. After the basic infrastructure is in place and proven, an (AI-)orchestrator should be added so more complex itineraries can be planned and managed during disruptions. The improved reliability and flexibility opens up multi-modal journeys for a wider selection of travel persona’s: e.g. grey nomads, business travelers, and visiting friends and relatives. The most demanding personas are likely to be families and travelers with disabilities over concerns in the reliability and predictability of the system.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
Assuming the availability of attractive travel options that happen to be sustainable would lead to a corresponding market desire. As the sustainable options get rolled out additional regulation and taxation should help with the scale up. This includes offering an improved passenger experience to target a wider demographic. In addition, marketing can increasingly focus on the value proposition. When the sustainable offer becomes more mature, other persona’s such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ travellers and all-in convenience travellers can be targeted.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
After approving a EU wide cap and trade system, the system should be implemented and enforced by the appropriate (trans-)national governments. This can start with specific origin destination pairs or geographical area. The larger the coverage area of the system, the larger emission reduction potential will be. Also the fairness of the system increases levelling the playing field for international competitors (such as airlines). After implementation, (air) travel operators will have to reduce their emissions and alter their pricing accordingly. Travel personas who are price sensitive, not tied to a specific location, and/or travel the most distance are affected the most: these include the younger generation and all-convenience travelers first.
"At the heart of this transformation lies a shared commitment: to ensure that the growth of global air transport goes hand in hand with strong environmental protection and responsibility." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 19)
"This interdisciplinary model reflects the reality that no single field can address aviation’s environmental challenges in isolation. By integrating diverse perspectives, students develop systems-thinking capabilities that align with ICAO’s long-term sustainability priorities." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 60)