Milestone
This is the final audit, where the public-private bodies (from the Medium Term) formally verify that the new system has met its goals. It checks that new services, such as access to urban air mobility, are affordable and not just a "luxury for the rich."
If the system is not verified as accessible, it means the transition has failed its social promise. It would have created an environmentally clean system that serves only a fraction of the population, leading to social and political failure.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fair, equitable, and human-centric transition that ensures public trust and a fully integrated future workforce.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Establish public-private bodies to govern new 'accessibility' and 'equity' standards.
This involves creating new, permanent organizations comprised of public officials and community representatives. Their job is to formally define and set measurable targets for "accessibility," ensuring the new system serves all communities, not just wealthy hubs.
Read moreImplement policies ensuring net-zero services are accessible to remote communities.
This is the enforcement arm of the "equity" standards. It involves creating policies that actively ensure new services are deployed equitably, such as using 'Public Service Obligation' (PSO) subsidies to fund electric regional-air-taxi routes to remote islands.
Read moreFinancial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
In the far future multi-modal journeys will have become the default travel option for all travel persona’s. The travel sector and international governments can then work towards global coverage aided by developments in AI and autonomous transport.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
A market cap and trade system introduces a (mostly) negative incentive to avoid emissions. Indirectly this could motivate (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
A global cap and trade system should lead to a steady reduction of carbon emissions (e.g. 5% reduction per year) with an impact assessment every 5 years. The coverage area should be rolled out as large as possible more maximum effectiveness and level playing field. As pricing increases, less price-sensitive frequent flyers will get affected, such as grey nomads, ‘bleisure’ and business travelers, and ultimately, travel fanatics.
"Recognise and address the socio-economic implications of policies related to critical raw materials, deforestation, and renewable energy." (Destination 2050 (2025), p. 18)