Milestone
This involves testing and validating the core AI models for full autonomous flight control and next generation air traffic control in a purely simulated environment. This "in-silico" testing (e.g., using the new digital twin architecture) is used to prove the AI's safety and decision-making logic before it is ever connected to a real aircraft.
If this foundational validation is skipped, you cannot gain regulatory approval (from Governance) or public trust (from Society) to test these systems in the real world. This would permanently halt the development of both autonomous flight and autonomous ATM.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fully developed, certified, and deployed ecosystem of net-zero technologies, from new propulsion to full autonomy.
Timeline
Short term
PESTEL
Demonstrate unified, AI-driven Air Traffic Management (ATM) protocols at scale.
This action involves moving the new ATM system from simulation to a live, large-scale demonstration. This means proving its safety and efficiency in a real-world setting, such as with fully autonomous, AI-managed flight operations across the 'North Atlantic Tracks' (NATs).
Read moreEstablish global 'open data' research platforms.
This action involves establishing the foundational "blueprint" for the global digital twin. This means defining the common data standards and core software architecture that will allow all future aircraft, airports, and ATM systems to connect to a single, shared, real-time virtual model of the entire aviation network.
Read moreCertify 'reduced crew' operations for initial cargo and long-haul flights.
This action involves certifying and implementing single pilot cockpit operations, enabled by the AI models validated in the Short Term. This would be restricted to initial use cases, such as long-haul flights (during cruise) or dedicated cargo routes, to build operational experience and prove safety.
Read moreImplement fully autonomous, AI-driven 'gate-to-gate' Air Traffic Management.
This is the full implementation of the next generation air traffic control system, removing human operators from the critical path. The mature, AI-driven system takes over all "gate-to-gate" operations, from automated taxi services on the ground to 4D trajectory management in the air, for all aircraft.
Read moreFinancial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
In the near future, governments set a minimum price for (non-sustainable) travel options. A more granular approach would be ticket levies that are differentiated based on sustainable performance. The gathered funds can subsidize sustainable travel alternatives. These incentives primarily target travelers who are sensitive to pricing but are not bound to a specific destination such as all-in convenience travelers and young travelers. Travelers who value sustainability are reinforced in their sustainable travel behavior.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
In order for multi-modal journeys to work operators from different modalities should come together in a single forum to create an ecosystem including a secure platform for data sharing. (Inter-regional) governments can help set standards for this data exchange. Together the ecosystem can work towards a regional proof of concept or ‘minimum valuable product’ to demonstrate the value and potential of multi-modal travel. The minimal version of multi-modal travel is aimed at the younger generation who are tech-savvy, more open to test new forms of travel and are less concerned with increased travel time or uncertainty. To get them on board cost should be low and the destination experience offered should be unique.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
Implementing this measure starts with the definition of this ‘alternative offer’: what would it look like? What value(s) would it provide to the passenger? There should be clear advantages to using the least polluting travel mode and travelling less far or less frequent in addition to increased sustainability. Examples are lower prices or a unique travel experience for more sustainable travel modes, holiday alternative closer to home or incentives to staying longer at the same location (travelling less overall). Governments can stimulate the necessary technological developments of aircraft manufacturers and operational changes at airlines with regulation and taxation that favor sustainable travel. This would allow airlines and travel agents effectively market these travel options. The offer should be targeted first at travel fanatics who travel the most without a specific need for a particular destination and young travelers with a willing to try new things, and benefit from new, sustainable habits. Influencers aimed at these target demographics can demonstrate the experience and travel value of the new sustainable propositions. When indeed sustainable and attractive, travelers who are already interested in sustainable travel can tag along without the need for additional promotion.
"With the world on the cusp of an AI revolution, Europe cannot afford to remain stuck in the “middle technologies and industries” of the previous century. We must unlock our innovative potential. This will be key not only to lead in new technologies, but also to integrate AI into our existing industries so that they can stay at the front." (The future of European competitiveness (2024), p. 6)
"Since 1990, about 14.66 billion tonnes of CO2 have been avoided due to new technology and operational efficiencies. The adoption of digital tools, particularly as more organizations figure out best uses for artificial intelligence in their particular field, will only serve to further these gains as increasingly efficient aircraft operate on increasingly efficient routes." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 72-73)