Milestone
This is the final "Social License" milestone, achieved only after decades of proven safety. It is the result of a flawless operational record from autonomous cargo and a transparent, secure, and safe passenger experience (e.g., a "virtual window" cockpit view).
Failure to achieve this final layer of trust means the cockpit never becomes empty. The entire autonomous technology track would be permanently "stuck" at "reduced crew," failing to unlock the ultimate efficiency and economic benefits of a fully autonomous system.
Scenario
Optimising together
Context Factor
A fair, equitable, and human-centric transition that ensures public trust and a fully integrated future workforce.
Timeline
Long term
PESTEL
Implement fully autonomous ('zero-crew') cargo operations on major routes.
This action leverages the mature "reduced crew" technologies (Medium Term) to achieve the final step: fully autonomous (zero-crew) cargo operations. This involves certifying aircraft designed with no cockpit at all for dedicated use on major intercontinental routes, managed by the new autonomous ATM system.
Read moreAchieve public trust in 'reduced crew' operations via 'living lab' partnerships.
This requires a dedicated, transparent campaign to prove the safety and reliability of autonomous systems. It involves publishing all safety data from the autonomous cargo trials to prove their reliability before suggesting their use in passenger aircraft.
Read moreMeasure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Measure not yet developed by WP3. To be further detailed after 1 dec in future iterations.
Financial incentives to use the most sustainable travel option provides positive incentives to shift passenger behavior. This measure also indirectly motivates (air) transport operators to improve the sustainability of their offerings.
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Due to penalizing the less sustainable option, the demand for these options will decline in favor of more sustainable alternatives. The market will adapt to this change, by increasing supply to equal this demand. This will drive down the prices for more sustainable options and therefore lead to a more sustainable market as a whole.
Multi modal journeys provides positive incentives to shift from a single (unsustainable) mode towards a more sustainable mix of transport modes.
In the far future multi-modal journeys will have become the default travel option for all travel persona’s. The travel sector and international governments can then work towards global coverage aided by developments in AI and autonomous transport.
Promoting the coolness of sustainable travel aims to shift travellers to a more sustainable mode of transport and/or aims to let travellers reduce their amount of travel(-kilometres) by promoting attractive, sustainable alternatives (carrot).
The end-goal of this measure is a clear shift in demand to more sustainable travel and green travel as the new standard. Within the high collaborative nature of this scenario, market campaigns work on a global scale and are distributed through various channels, such as social media platforms.
"Ultimately, performance frameworks must be supported by broader governance structures that protect environmental integrity and preserve public trust." (2025 ICAO Environmental Report, p. 182)